ACUS11 KWNS 051937

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 051937 

TXZ000-052230-



Mesoscale Discussion 0646

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0237 PM CDT Tue May 05 2026



Areas affected...parts of northwestern into north central Texas



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 



Valid 051937Z - 052230Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent



SUMMARY...The initiation of strong thunderstorms appears possible to

the west of Dallas/Forth Worth within the next couple of hours. 

This may include the evolution of an intensifying supercell or two,

which could pose potential for producing large, damaging hail

impacting at least parts of the Metroplex by 5-7 PM.  If/when this

becomes more certain, a severe weather watch probably will be

needed.



DISCUSSION...Just ahead of a southward advancing cold front, now

southeast of the Wichita Falls TX vicinity, stronger surface heating

and deeper boundary-layer mixing are ongoing in a narrow corridor

roughly focused along I-20 across the Abilene into Fort Worth

vicinity.  At least attempts at deepening convective development are

underway within this regime to the west-north of Mineral Wells,

where low-level forcing for ascent may be aided by weak low-level

warm advection and locally enhanced convergence, near the general

intersection of the cold front and dryline.



This is occurring beneath larger-scale mid/upper ridging

overspreading much of the southern Great Plains.  However, based on

various model output, including convection allowing guidance, 

further insolation, coupled with subtle mid-level height falls and

cooling, might become supportive of thunderstorm initiation within

the next few hours.  How long this activity is sustained before

tending to be undercut by the southward advancing cold front, and

whether this occurs prior to acquiring inflow of higher

boundary-layer moisture content along and to the east of the

dryline, remain unclear.



Even in the drier more strongly heated boundary-layer just to the

west/southwest of the cold front/dryline intersection, initial

thunderstorm development may become capable of producing large hail

and a locally strong downburst, in the presence of steep-lapse rates

and strong deep-layer shear.  If convection is able to acquire

inflow of boundary-layer air with dew points near 70F, which may be

maintained across eastern portions of the Metroplex, the potential

for much larger and damaging hail will become considerably greater.



..Kerr/Smith.. 05/05/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...



LAT...LON   33289903 33379822 33019639 32189747 32399914 32829950

            33289903 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN