ACUS11 KWNS 051733 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051733 MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-051900- Mesoscale Discussion 0645 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Tue May 05 2026 Areas affected...portions of central New York into western Massachusetts...Vermont...New Hampshire...and western Maine Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 051733Z - 051900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An uptick in thunderstorm coverage is expected this afternoon. Damaging gusts will be the main threat with the stronger storms, though an instance of hail or a brief tornado could occur. The severe threat seems isolated, so a WW issuance is not currently expected. DISCUSSION...Adequate surface heating ahead of an approaching cold front (currently over eastern Ontario) has allowed for boundary layer destabilization, amid diminishing MLCINH, to support convective initiation over portions of upstate NY. Ahead of these storms, surface temperatures exceeding 80 F, despite meager low-level moisture (45-50 F surface dewpoints) and poor mid-level lapse rates, is resulting in 500-1000 J/kg SBCAPE. Parallel deep-layer flow to the approaching cold front suggests that predominantly linear storm modes are expected. Given 8-9 C/km boundary layer lapse rates, efficient downward momentum transport potential will exist for damaging gusts, though an instance of hail or a brief tornado may occur if a robust, discrete storm could develop. Nonetheless, the overall severe threat should be sparse, so a WW issuance is not anticipated. ..Squitieri/Smith.. 05/05/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... LAT...LON 43187620 44547468 45117234 45517078 45567004 45346969 44776987 44007077 43227208 42657272 42347340 42287426 42187532 42287606 43187620 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN