ACUS11 KWNS 050602

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 050601 

ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-050800-



Mesoscale Discussion 0644

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0101 AM CDT Tue May 05 2026



Areas affected...Northeast OK into northwest AR and far southwest MO



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 



Valid 050601Z - 050800Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent



SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms will remain possible

overnight.



DISCUSSION...An elevated storm cluster has recently shown some signs

of organization across northeast OK, with convection increasing

along both a developing cold pool and gust front, and within a warm

advection regime near the OK/MO/AR border region. This cluster is

being aided by a strong low-level jet, which should help to maintain

this cluster as it moves southeastward overnight. 



Steep midlevel lapse rates (as observed on regional 00Z soundings),

MUCAPE of near/above 1000 J/kg, and moderate effective shear will

support some hail potential with the strongest embedded updrafts,

though the ongoing cluster/linear mode may mitigate hail potential

to some extent. Severe wind potential is also uncertain, due to the

elevated nature of the ongoing convection. However, given the

presence of a surface cold pool and sharp pressure rises (2-3

mb/hour) behind the gust front noted on Mesonet observations in

northeast OK, locally damaging wind could also accompany this system

as it moves southeastward.



..Dean/Mosier.. 05/05/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...



LAT...LON   37099541 36769396 36279245 35969268 35609313 35379404

            35729464 36029506 36249525 36699553 37099541 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN