ACUS11 KWNS 050153

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 050153 

MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-050400-



Mesoscale Discussion 0642

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0853 PM CDT Mon May 04 2026



Areas affected...central and eastern Kansas into western Missouri



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 



Valid 050153Z - 050400Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent



SUMMARY...One or more clusters of strong to severe storms may

develop this evening and spread eastward with a risk of damaging

winds and hail. A WW is possible.



DISCUSSION...Across portions of the central Plains, evening RADAR

and surface observations showed high-based convection and outflow

moving eastward across central KS. Most of this activity initiated

several hours ago in much drier air west of the primary dryline and

cold front over central KS. Likely tied to a subtle mid-level

trough, this activity is beginning to encroach on the western

fringes of the relatively better surface moisture near I-35. While

dewpoints are not overly robust (50s F), steep mid-level lapse rates

were supporting 1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE. Additional ascent from the

shortwave and an increasing nocturnal low-level jet (evident on VADs

farther south) may support an increase in storm coverage over the

next few hours. 



Lightning has increased on several weak updrafts over the last hour.

Current expectations are for the weaker updrafts currently ongoing

to gradually intensify, with additional storm development taking

place in proximity to associated outflow as convection moves into

the more unstable air mass. This should favor upscale growth into

one or more clusters with time. Steep lapse rates and 25-40 kt of

deep-layer shear could support an organized cluster capable of hail

initially, but with an increased risk of damaging gusts with time.

Given the potential for increasing severe potential, a WW is being

considered, though the exact timing remains unclear. Convective

trends will be monitored over the coming hours for potential watch

issuance.



..Lyons/Hart.. 05/05/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...



LAT...LON   37649868 39199846 39689611 39539444 38969368 38519358

            38069359 37479386 37119414 36889465 36839547 36809639

            36829706 36849760 36899811 36939835 37649868 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN