ACUS11 KWNS 042151

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 042150 

OKZ000-TXZ000-042315-



Mesoscale Discussion 0639

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0450 PM CDT Mon May 04 2026



Areas affected...portions of western and central Oklahoma and into

western North Texas.



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 



Valid 042150Z - 042315Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent



SUMMARY...Isolated supercells are possible this afternoon and

evening with a risk for hail (some 2+ inch) and damaging winds. The

need for a watch is unclear, but will be closely monitored.



DISCUSSION...As of 2145 UTC, visible imagery showed high-based

cumulus towers deepening along the dryline across portions of

western OK and western North TX. Ample heating, despite some cirrus

has allowed temperatures to warm into the low to mid 90s F resulting

in moderate destabilization (MUCAPE 1000-1500 J/kg). Ascent from an

approaching shortwave trough and continued heating along the dryline

should remove remaining inhibition, allowing isolated storm

development over the next few hours across western OK and western

North TX.



Despite the somewhat limited buoyancy and marginal surface dewpoints

(mid-50s to near 60 F), veering and strengthening flow with height

beneath 100-kt westerly 200-mb flow will support supercells as the

primary storm mode.  Isolated large to very large hail will be the

main risk with the stronger storms. Relatively high LCLs around 2000

m and the steep lapse rates in the low levels would also likely

support strong downdrafts capable of severe gusts with any

established storms.



The primary uncertainty remains the coverage and intensity of any

storms that develop. High LFC heights (3-4 km) and strong dry air

entrainment suggest storms will be slow to evolve and strengthen.

However, the environment is supportive of a conditional significant

hail risk given the supercell storm mode. Given this, isolated

storms are expected, suggesting a WW is unlikely. However, should

sufficient coverage of supercells develop, a WW could be needed.

Convective trends will be monitored closely into this evening.



..Lyons/Hart.. 05/04/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...



LAT...LON   35099934 36009878 36619786 36529624 36009576 35319571

            34819588 34149635 33859689 33629733 33389841 33379938

            33379978 33470009 33630031 33930029 34369996 35099934 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN