ACUS11 KWNS 042046

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 042046 

NMZ000-AZZ000-042215-



Mesoscale Discussion 1833

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0346 PM CDT Tue Aug 04 2026



Areas affected...southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 



Valid 042046Z - 042215Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent



SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are likely over parts of southeast

AZ and southwest NM this afternoon/evening. Some storms could

produce strong/severe gusts or isolated hail. A WW is possible, but

uncertain.



DISCUSSION...Afternoon satellite and radar imagery across the

Southwest showed initial convective development is underway over the

higher terrain of southeastern AZ and southwest NM. Driven in part

by enhanced surface convergence near a thermally induced surface

low, thunderstorms are forecast to increase in coverage over the

next several hours. The air mass downstream is expected to continue

to destabilize, with surface temperatures near/exceeding 100 degrees

F amid mid to upper 50s F dewpoints supporting MLCAPE of 1000-1500

J/kg.



With time, congealing outflow and modest easterly flow aloft should

allow for one or more clusters to move westward out of the higher

terrain. Additional storms may develop near the international border

and spread northwestward into the lower deserts. Isolated hail

(1-1.25 inches) will be possible with these initial updrafts, owing

to the moderate buoyancy and initially cellular storm mode. Steep

low/mid-level lapse rates ahead of this activity will also favor

plentiful evaporative cooling and strong downdrafts. The potential

for dry microbursts and associated outflow could support 60-80 mph

gusts with the most robust clusters through the evening. Given the

increasing coverage of thunderstorms and a risk for strong/severe

gusts this evening, a WW is being considered over parts of

southeastern AZ and southwest NM.



..Lyons/Gleason.. 08/04/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...



LAT...LON   31621218 32251253 33171072 33790953 33790862 33290794

            32620786 32340789 31890795 31570805 31380816 31200829

            31140886 31140998 31151084 31181117 31621218 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN