ACUS11 KWNS 042022

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 042022 

OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-042215-



Mesoscale Discussion 1832

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0322 PM CDT Tue Aug 04 2026



Areas affected...parts of far southeastern Colorado...northeast New

Mexico and the western Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 



Valid 042022Z - 042215Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent



SUMMARY...Initial convection over the higher terrain should

gradually increase in coverage late this afternoon. Isolated hail

and damaging gusts are possible with the strongest storms. A WW is

unlikely.



DISCUSSION...As of 2015 UTC, visible imagery showed increased

vertical development of cumulus along the ridge tops of the Raton

Mesa and Sangre De Cristos Range. Strong surface heating amid a weak

post-frontal upslope flow regime is supporting gradual air mass

destabilization which is forecast to continue much of this

afternoon. While not overly robust, around 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE and

mid-level lapse rates ~ 8 C/km will be sufficient to support strong

updrafts as convection intensifies.



Current expectations are for storms to gradually develop and move

off the higher terrain onto the southern High Plains, aided by

modestly enhanced westerly flow aloft. As convection intensifies

late this afternoon/evening, some organization into multicell

clusters or transient supercells is possible owing to 30-35 kts of

deep-layer shear. This could support isolated hail with the stronger

storms, along with some potential for damaging/severe gusts with

low-level lapse rates being fairly steep. While some severe risk is

possible into this evening, modest forcing for ascent and buoyancy

suggest the threat will be isolated. A WW is unlikely.



..Lyons/Gleason.. 08/04/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ...



LAT...LON   37900537 37990466 37040278 36660181 35750196 35440227

            34980311 34890400 35070475 35420522 35650550 35980556

            36430556 37900537 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN