ACUS03 KWNS 250720

SWODY3

SPC AC 250720



Day 3 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0220 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025



Valid 271200Z - 281200Z



...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...



...SUMMARY...

Severe potential is low Monday.



...Synopsis...

An upper trough moving eastward over the Gulf Coast is forecast to

weaken Monday as a second upstream trough and northwesterly jet

strengthen over the Plains. To the east, a broad mid-level low will

deepen over New England as troughing consolidates across the eastern

US. This will favor a strong and mostly zonal northwesterly flow

regime over the central and western US. A weak surface low along a

stalled front across the northeast Gulf Coast will begin moving

southward in response to the increased northwesterly flow aloft.

This will drag the front southward through the day and eventually

offshore overnight into Tuesday.



...Southern GA into Fl...

Widespread stratiform precipitation and isolated thunderstorms are

likely to be ongoing north of the front early Monday, limiting

diurnal destabilization and reinforcing the southward motion of the

front. While additional elevated storms are possible through the

afternoon with increased isentropic ascent, the increasingly muted

buoyancy suggests little if any severe risk with this elevated

convection.



An isolated stronger storm capable of damaging gusts remains

possible across the northern FL Peninsula where enhanced westerly

flow aloft will overspread weak to moderate buoyancy amid typically

moist surface conditions. However, poor mid-level lapse rates

(around 6-6.5 C/km), limited forcing for ascent and eventual

undercutting by the sagging cold front lends low confidence in any

sustained severe risk Monday.



..Lyons.. 10/25/2025



$$