ACUS03 KWNS 241929

SWODY3

SPC AC 241928



Day 3 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0228 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025



Valid 261200Z - 271200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS

OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY....



...SUMMARY...

Isolated strong to severe storms are possible through Sunday morning

over the central Gulf Coast. A second round of strong storms is

possible by Sunday afternoon, though the severe threat appears more

conditional.



...Synopsis...

A mid-level trough will continue to traverse the Gulf Coast while a

broader upper trough continues to overspread the Interior West on

Sunday. Surface troughing will promote continued low-level

warm-air/moisture advection ahead of ongoing thunderstorms over the

Lower MS Valley Sunday morning into afternoon, where adequate

vertical wind shear will support an isolated severe threat.



...Lower MS Valley...

A cluster or loosely organized line of thunderstorms will be ongoing

at the start of the period (i.e. 12Z Sunday), preceded by mid to

upper 60s F dewpoints beneath a departing 30-40 kt southerly

low-level jet. MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg amid 40+ kts of effective

bulk shear and modestly sized/curved low-level hodographs (around

200 m2/s2 effective SRH) will precede the ongoing storms, supporting

an isolated severe gust/tornado threat through Sunday morning,

warranting Category 1/Marginal risk probabilities. Some airmass

modification of the free warm sector is possible behind the initial

round of storms Sunday afternoon, particularly from central MS into

far eastern LA. Should diurnal heating become abundant (which is

highly questionable at the moment), relatively robust initiation of

new convection is possible. Even so, the departing low-level jet to

the east suggests that any materializing severe threat will likely

be isolated, with a couple of severe gusts being the main threat,

though a tornado cannot be ruled out with the afternoon storms.



..Squitieri.. 10/24/2025



$$