ACUS03 KWNS 201904

SWODY3

SPC AC 201903



Day 3 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0203 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026



Valid 221200Z - 231200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF

THE OHIO VALLEY...



...SUMMARY...

Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday afternoon and evening

across parts of the Ohio Valley.



...Ohio Valley vicinity...



Westerly mid/upper flow will amplify on Sunday as a shortwave trough

deepens across the Great Lakes to the central Appalachians. As this

occurs, a 60-80 kt southwesterly jet max will overspread the Ohio

Valley by late afternoon. Around midday, a cold front will extend

southwest from Lakes Ontario and Erie into northern IN/central

IL/MO. This front will progress southeast through the period,

becoming oriented from the Mid-Atlantic coast to the Lower MS Valley

by Monday morning. Boundary-layer moisture is forecast to remain

somewhat modest across the warm sector ahead of the front (mid 50s

to near 60 F). However, steep midlevel lapse rates are noted in

forecast soundings, and model guidance depicts 500 mb temperatures

around -14 to -16 C at 00z. This should support MLCAPE from 500-2000

J/kg. 



While forecast wind profiles are generally unidirectional, rapidly

increasing wind speeds with height will result in modestly

enlarged/curved low-level hodographs becoming elongated above 2-3

km, with effective shear magnitudes 40+ kt. However, the warm sector

is expected to largely remain capped. Low-level frontal convergence

will be the main forcing mechanism as large-scale ascent will arrive

with the front or perhaps delayed behind the front during the

evening. While shear profiles could support supercells, it is

unclear if capping and broad ascent will limit supercell potential,

especially with southwest extent into the Lower Ohio Valley and

Mid-South vicinity. If supercells can develop and persist, large

hail and damaging winds are possible. Once linear convection

develops, severe/damaging wind gust will become the main hazard.

Tornado potential is more uncertain given concerns regarding

low-level moisture, capping, and storm mode/evolution, but a tornado

or two cannot be ruled out.



..Leitman.. 03/20/2026



$$