ACUS03 KWNS 200721

SWODY3

SPC AC 200720



Day 3 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0220 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026



Valid 221200Z - 231200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF

THE OHIO VALLEY...



...SUMMARY...

Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday afternoon and evening

across parts of the Ohio Valley.



...Ohio Valley/Mid Mississippi Valley...

A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward into

the upper Mississippi Valley on Sunday. Ahead of the trough, a cold

front will advance southward into the Ohio Valley. As surface

temperatures warm during the day, moderate instability is forecast

to develop across much of the Ohio Valley. Increasing low-level

convergence along the front during the afternoon will help

thunderstorms to initiate, with storms increasing in coverage in the

late afternoon and early evening. A large area of storms is expected

to form along a corridor from southern Illinois east-northeastward

into west-central Pennsylvania. Some of these storms will likely

have a severe threat.



Late afternoon forecast soundings in the Ohio Valley near

Cincinnati, Ohio have MLCAPE increasing to near 1800 J/kg with 0-6

km shear in the 45 to 50 knot range. In addition, 700-500 mb lapse

rates are forecast to be in the 7 to 7.5 C/km range. This

environment should support supercells with large hail. The greatest

hail threat may occur somewhat early in the event, when cells are

more likely be discrete. A wind-damage threat is also expected, and

could increase as storms congeal into a line during the early

evening. A more isolated severe threat could develop further to the

southwest into the mid Mississippi Valley during the late afternoon

and early evening.



..Broyles.. 03/20/2026



$$