ACUS03 KWNS 191931

SWODY3

SPC AC 191929



Day 3 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0229 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026



Valid 211200Z - 221200Z



...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...



...SUMMARY...

Isolated general thunderstorms are possible Saturday over the

Tennessee Valley to southern Appalachians, and also across parts of

the Upper Midwest.



...Synopsis...

Some deamplification of the upper-level pattern is expected on

Saturday, with a transition to more zonal flow across much of the

western and central CONUS. A large-scale upper trough will remain in

place across much of the East, with a weak embedded shortwave

expected to move from the Mid MS Valley toward the Southeast. 



...TN Valley into parts of GA and the Carolinas...

A weak front that moves into the region late D2/Friday is forecast

to stall and potentially become rather ill-defined with time, as a

surface low deepens well to the northwest across the north-central

Plains. A remnant moisture/instability gradient is still depicted by

guidance to be draped from TN into the southern Appalachians and SC

by Saturday afternoon. Modest destabilization (with MLCAPE

potentially approaching 1000 J/kg) will be possible along/south of

the remnant boundary, and isolated storm development may occur as

the weakening shortwave trough moves across the region. 



Deep-layer shear will generally remain rather modest within the weak

northwest-flow regime, and storm coverage may tend to remain limited

due to weak large-scale ascent. As a result, confidence in an

organized-severe threat is currently too low for probabilities,

though isolated strong storms with localized hail and/or wind-damage

potential cannot be ruled out, and a Marginal Risk may eventually be

needed for parts of the region.



..Dean.. 03/19/2026



$$