ACUS03 KWNS 050641

SWODY3

SPC AC 050640



Day 3 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0140 AM CDT Tue May 05 2026



Valid 071200Z - 081200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE

CENTRAL GULF COAST TO SOUTH CAROLINA...



...SUMMARY...

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday

across portions of the central Gulf coast into South Carolina.



...Gulf coast to SC...



A large upper trough will pivot over the eastern U.S. on Thursday.

Strong west/southwesterly deep-layer flow will be in place across

the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front

will develop south/southeast across portions of south TX, the

central Gulf coast states and the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic vicinity. A

seasonally moist airmass will be in place ahead of the boundary, and

some risk for strong to severe storms will exist near the

progressing cold front from southern MS/AL into SC.



There is some uncertainty regarding the position of the cold front

Thursday morning. The NAM is faster compared to the GFS and ECMWF.

Nevertheless, rich Gulf moisture ahead of the boundary will support

at least modest destabilization. Convection will likely be ongoing

near the front Thursday morning. Redevelopment or intensification

into midday and through the afternoon appears plausible given strong

deep-layer flow within the modestly unstable airmass. Clusters and

linear convection appear most likely, with an attendant risk of

damaging wind. 



...South TX...



Severe potential across south TX is uncertain and will depend on

cold frontal position Thursday morning. If southward progress of the

front is slowly, some risk of severe could develop across south TX

where 70s dewpoints and daytime heating could support strong

instability. If storms develop, a risk for hail appears possible.

However, some forecast guidance surges the cold front southward

across the region during the morning and maintains capping through

the day. Low confidence precludes severe probabilities at this time.



..Leitman.. 05/05/2026



$$