ACUS03 KWNS 041930

SWODY3

SPC AC 041929



Day 3 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0229 PM CDT Tue Aug 04 2026



Valid 061200Z - 071200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE

MID-ATLANTIC...



...SUMMARY...

A few strong storms may occur from the central Plains into the

Northeast on Thursday with locally strong wind gusts.



...Northeast...

A very moist airmass (dewpoints in the low/mid 70s F) are expected

across much of the East along the western periphery of the Atlantic

surface high. Flow aloft will be somewhat enhanced near the Great

Lakes trough, primarily for the northern Mid-Atlantic into parts of

New England. Given the rich moisture, surface heating will not have

to be overly robust to promote around or above 2000 J/kg MLCAPE

despite weak mid-level lapse rates. Where steeper low-level lapse

rates and/or clustering can occur, isolated damaging winds will be

possible.



...Central/Northern Plains...

Predictability continues to be low within these regions. In southern

Kansas, the cold font, perhaps augmented by early day

precipitation/clouds, will be one area of potential storm

development during the afternoon. Temperatures to the south of the

stalled boundary will be quite hot and may provide enough lift for

initiation. Enough mid-level flow will be present to promote storm

organization, should any form. Uncertainty in development remains

too high for a categorical risk area.



A secondary surface front is expected to develop from northern

Nebraska into the eastern Dakotas and northern Minnesota. The ECMWF

is much more aggressive with moisture return ahead of the boundary

than the NAM. Furthermore, mid-level heights will likely be slowly

rising through the period. A stronger storm or two would be

possible, but development is still uncertain. Elevated storms are

probable in northern Minnesota as the low-level jet increases, but

buoyancy is expected to remain weak.



..Wendt.. 08/04/2026



$$