ACUS03 KWNS 041913

SWODY3

SPC AC 041912



Day 3 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0212 PM CDT Mon May 04 2026



Valid 061200Z - 071200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN TEXAS

INTO ALABAMA...



...SUMMARY...

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Wednesday

afternoon and evening across portions of Texas into the lower

Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Damaging winds, large hail, and a

couple of tornadoes will be possible.



...Synopsis...

A large positive-tilt upper trough will extend from upper Great

Lakes into the Southwest, with a broad zone of strong mid to high

levels southwesterlies extending from the southern Plains across the

lower to middle MS and TN Valleys. Gradual cooling aloft will occur

through the period as this upper trough proceeds gradually east. At

the surface, a cold front will extend from the upper OH Valley into

central TX during the day, and this front will surge south overnight

into the southeastern states and southern TX.



...Eastern TX into the TN Valley...

A very moist air mass will exist ahead of the cold front, with 70s F

dewpoints from TX into AL. Early day storms are likely in the warm

advection regime over parts of KY and TN, aided by southwest 850 mb

winds around 40 kt. This may temporarily stabilize these northern

areas before destabilization occurs later in the day. The strongest

heating will occur from TX into MS/AL, with MUCAPE up to 3000 J/kg.



The greatest risk area will extend from the Sabine River into MS and

northern AL late in the day, perhaps near 00Z, and into the early

evening, as storms finally break the capping inversion after a full

days heating. Deep-layer shear will be oriented mostly parallel to

the front, and low-level winds will be a bit veered with marginal

SRH values. Still, supercells may develop owing to strong effective

shear, with steep lapse rates aloft supporting hail. Damaging winds

may become an issue as storms possibly merge with bowing structures.



For northern areas from TN into KY, the risk will depend on air mass

recovery in the wake of any early day activity. Conditionally,

low-level shear may be stronger in this region, with an isolated

tornado or hail risk.



..Jewell.. 05/04/2026



$$