ACUS02 KWNS 250557

SWODY2

SPC AC 250556



Day 2 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1256 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025



Valid 261200Z - 271200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF

THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...



...SUMMARY...

Isolated strong to severe storms are possible through Sunday morning

over the central Gulf Coast. A second round of strong storms is

possible by Sunday evening into early Monday, though the severe

threat appears more conditional.



...Central Gulf Coast...

A remnant MCS or cluster of strong storms should be ongoing over the

lower MS Valley early Sunday. This cluster is likely to continue

over parts of the central Gulf Coast through midday as strong flow

aloft associated with an advancing upper trough moves eastward. Rich

boundary-layer moisture and modest low-level warm advection ahead of

these storms will likely support a continued severe risk given

MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg, 40+ kts of effective bulk shear and

modestly sized/curved low-level hodographs. Isolated severe gusts

and a brief tornado will remain possible with the stronger cores

through midday.



With time, these storms will move offshore and to the east where

cooler and more stable surface conditions are expected north of a

stalled coastal warm front. Some air mass recovery is possible 

behind the initial convection over southern MS, AL and the FL

Panhandle, where lingering 60s F dewpoints and some diurnal heating

are expected. However, this is highly uncertain. A conditional risk

for a few stronger storms may develop in the near-shore waters of LA

and southern MS/AL late Sunday into the overnight hours. While

continued onshore flow may allow for some destabilization

immediately inland, the maritime warm front and more unstable

surface-based warm sector is expected to remain offshore. A

conditional risk for isolated damaging gusts or a brief tornado is

possible along the immediate coast from southern MS/AL into the

western FL Panhandle into early Monday.



..Lyons.. 10/25/2025



$$