ACUS02 KWNS 201640

SWODY2

SPC AC 201638



Day 2 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1138 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026



Valid 211200Z - 221200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN

TENNESSEE INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA...



...SUMMARY...

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce hail to near 1

inch diameter Saturday afternoon and evening from eastern Tennessee

into portions of North and South Carolina.



...Tennessee into the Carolinas...



A modest midlevel shortwave trough will migrate southeast from the

Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Southeast within a broader

northwesterly upper flow regime on Saturday. Midlevel flow is not

forecast to be overly strong with this shortwave, with around 25-35

kt noted in forecast guidance. However, vertically veering wind

profiles within the lowest 2-3 km, and stronger northwesterly flow

above 500 mb will support effective shear magnitudes of around 25

kt. Forecast soundings also show elongated/straight hodographs.

Boundary layer moisture is forecast to remain modest, with surface

dewpoints generally in the 50s, with some areas across the TN Valley

seeing low 60s dewpoints. However, relatively steep midlevel lapse

rates near 7 C/km and cool temperatures aloft (near -15 C at 500 mb)

will support 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. 



Given modestly favorable vertical shear and instability, combined

with weak large-scale ascent overspreading the region by peak

heating, a low risk for severe storms producing hail to around 1

inch diameter appears possible, and a level 1 of 5 (Marginal) risk

has been included with the Day 2 update.



..Leitman.. 03/20/2026



$$