ACUS02 KWNS 191732

SWODY2

SPC AC 191730



Day 2 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1230 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026



Valid 201200Z - 211200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ON THE

UPPER OHIO VALLEY...



...SUMMARY...

Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of

the Upper Ohio Valley, mainly late Friday afternoon into Friday

evening.



...Synopsis...

An upper ridge will remain in place over the Southwest on Friday,

while a large-scale upper trough will cover much of the eastern

CONUS. Within the large-scale trough, an embedded shortwave will

move from the Upper Great Lakes towards the northern Mid Atlantic

and New England. A surface low will move from parts of lower MI

toward New England through the period, as trailing cold front moves

across the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic. 



...Parts of the mid/upper Ohio Valley...

Modest low-level moisture will return through the day along/ahead of

the approaching cold front across parts of the Ohio Valley/Allegheny

Plateau region. Regarding prefrontal dewpoints, guidance generally

ranges from the low 50s F (HRRR/WRF-ARW) to mid/upper 50s F (NAM and

other HREF members). In the presence of strong deep-layer

flow/shear, the magnitude of moisture return will determine the

level and areal extent of any organized severe potential. 



If moisture return becomes sufficient to support MLCAPE of around

500 J/kg or greater, then a few stronger updrafts and perhaps

marginal supercell structures could develop by late afternoon or

early evening, as convective temperatures are approached or breached

and glancing large-scale ascent impinges upon the region. Despite

the generally weak instability, any robust storms could pose a

threat of marginally severe hail and perhaps locally gusty/damaging

winds, given the presence of favorable shear and rather cold

temperatures aloft. A brief tornado also cannot be ruled out, though

this will be more conditional on richer low-level moisture return

and maintenance of surface-based convection.



With generally low-quality moisture noted in Thursday morning

observations, sufficient moisture return for an organized severe

threat on Friday remains quite uncertain. However, given the

presence of very favorable wind profiles and at least some signal

for near-surface-based storm development during the late afternoon

and evening, a conditional Marginal Risk has been added for Friday

across parts of the Upper Ohio Valley. A conditionally favorable

environment will extend outside of the Marginal Risk into parts of

the mid/lower Ohio Valley, but the signal for storm development

currently decreases substantially with southwestward extent.



..Dean.. 03/19/2026



$$