ACUS02 KWNS 071738

SWODY2

SPC AC 071736



Day 2 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1236 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025



Valid 081200Z - 091200Z



...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...



...SUMMARY...

Isolated strong storms may occur over far southern Florida and the

Keys late Tuesday and into the overnight hours, and from southeast

Montana to Black Hills.



...Synopsis and Discussion...

A low-latitude shortwave trough will move east across the Gulf while

a front sinks south across far southern FL. Modest heating may yield

MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg over far southern FL, supporting daytime

storms near and north of the front. Midlevel temperatures/lapse

rates do not appear particularly favorable for hail. Ahead of the

upper wave, 850 mb flow will average 20-25 kt, with most of the

stronger winds above 500 mb. As such, severe gusts from

boundary-layer mixing appear unlikely. Small/non-severe hail or

locally strong gusts will be possible.



Overnight, as the upper trough and leading midlevel speed max

approach the FL Peninsula, a minimal increase in lift may result in

increased storm coverage near the Keys and from the FL Straits into

the Bahamas.



Elsewhere, afternoon and evening thunderstorms are likely from

southeast MT/northeast WY into western SD late. Here, very steep

lapse rates and a progressive/low-amplitude wave will favor storms

forming near the Billings vicinity with scattered cells producing

small/sub-severe hail and locally gusty winds.



..Jewell.. 04/07/2025



$$