ACUS02 KWNS 070551

SWODY2

SPC AC 070549



Day 2 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1249 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025



Valid 081200Z - 091200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF

FAR SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS...



...SUMMARY...

Isolated strong to severe storms may occur over far southern Florida

and the Keys on Tuesday afternoon into the overnight hours.



...Synopsis...

A low-latitude midlevel trough will advance eastward across the Gulf

during the day, and overspread the Florida Peninsula during the

overnight hours. At the same time, a cold front will move

southeastward across southern Florida through the afternoon. Farther

west, a low-amplitude midlevel trough will track eastward across the

northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. 



...Southern Florida and the Keys...

Along/ahead of the southward-moving cold front, a moist/uncapped air

mass will promote showers and thunderstorms across central/southern

Florida throughout the day. However, poor midlevel lapse rates/weak

instability and modest deep-layer shear should limit storm

intensity. By late afternoon into the overnight hours, effective

shear will increase to around 30 kt ahead of the midlevel trough,

which may promote a couple strong/severe storm clusters capable of

locally damaging gusts across far southeast Florida and the Keys.

However, deep west-southwesterly flow and a developing frontal wave

over the Gulf Stream should tend to focus the stronger storms

offshore. 



...Northern High Plains...

Ahead of the low-amplitude midlevel trough, low/mid-level lapse

rates will steepen through the afternoon, while effective shear

increases to around 30 kt. Weak instability limits confidence in the

severe threat, though locally strong wind gusts could accompany

convection as it spreads eastward amid the steep lapse rates through

the afternoon.



..Weinman.. 04/07/2025



$$