ACUS02 KWNS 041743

SWODY2

SPC AC 041741



Day 2 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1241 PM CDT Mon May 04 2026



Valid 051200Z - 061200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER

ARKANSAS AND EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN

TENNESSEE...



...SUMMARY...

Scattered strong to severe storms are possible Tuesday afternoon and

evening from northeast Texas into western Tennessee, with the main

threat centered over Arkansas. Some storms may produce large hail,

damaging gusts or a couple tornadoes. Additional strong storms are

possible across parts of the Northeast.



...Synopsis...

A weakening upper low will move from Ontario into Quebec with a

leading speed max moving quickly out of the Great Lakes region.

Behind this system, high pressure will move southward into the

northern Rockies and Plains. The associated cold front will move

across the lower Great Lakes during the day, extending southwestward

across the Ozarks and into eastern OK where a surface low is

forecast.



Meanwhile, a positive-tilt upper trough will exist over the

southwestern states, with moderate to strong west/southwest flow

aloft expanding across the southern Plains to the Lower MS Valley.

Minimal height rises are forecast across this region, with the warm

advection regime aiding northward transport of low-level moisture

toward the Ozarks.



...Northeast TX into western TN...

A low pressure trough is forecast to develop generally from northern

TX into eastern OK and western AR during the afternoon, with the

main synoptic boundary slowing over northern AR. Models indicate

early day storms are likely over southeast MO, northeast AR and into

western KY and TN, dissipating by midday. This activity may

reinforce the effective frontal position into AR, where air mass

recovery will occur. 



By late afternoon, scattered supercells are expected to form near

the surface trough from AR into northeast TX. Given robust moisture

with upper 60s F dewpoints, 60+ kt deep layer shear and effective

SRH maximized over AR, tornadoes will also be possible. The

combination of a capping inversion over much of the area, forced

cells timed with peak heating, and a potential downstream

outflow/enhanced zone of SRH, a strong tornado is conditionally

possible.



...NY into ME...

Strong heating ahead of the cold front and a plume of 50s F

dewpoints will lead to 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE during the day, beneath

midlevel southwesterlies over 50 kt. Storms are forecast to develop

after 18Z from western into northern NY, with storms moving rapidly

northeastward across VT/NH and into ME. Forecast soundings indicate

40-50 kt deep-layer mean winds, which in combination with a mixed

boundary layer should support cells as well as bowing structures

capable of damaging gusts. The strongest cells may contain hail as

well. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out given 150-200+ m2/s2

effective SRH depicted across northern areas, though veering

low-level flow and/or deepening mixed layers may mitigate that

potential somewhat.



..Jewell.. 05/04/2026



$$