ACUS02 KWNS 041727 SWODY2 SPC AC 041725 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Tue Aug 04 2026 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MISSOURI INTO ILLINOIS...NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms appear possible from Missouri into central Illinois, over portions of southeast Arizona, and from northeast New Mexico into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...Missouri/Iowa/Illinois... Broad troughing over the north-central CONUS into the Great Lakes region will bring moderate to seasonably strong mid-level flow across the Mid-Missouri/Mississippi Valleys. Large-scale lift will not be overly strong, though embedded shortwave troughs may augment lift locally. Along a surface trough from the lower Great Lakes southwestward into the central Plains, dewpoints of mid/upper 60s to low 70s F are expected. 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE will be possible by the afternoon. The strongest shear will likely remain on the cool side of the surface boundary, but 30-35 kt of effective shear will be sufficient for a few organized storms. Initial cells will be capable of marginally severe hail. Clusters/linear segments will be the predominant storm modes with an associated risk of damaging winds. ...New Mexico into the Panhandles... Moist upslope flow into the Raton Mesa will allow for storm development by late afternoon. Modest northwesterly flow aloft (around 35-40 kt of effective shear) will promote marginally organized storms. Strong/severe winds will be the main hazard given strong heating and steep low-level lapse rates. ...Arizona... A moist airmass (50s to perhaps near 60 F dewpoints) will be in place during the afternoon/evening. Westerly surface winds will promote storm development within eastern portion of the Mogollon Rim. Modest easterly winds aloft should be sufficient to move activity off of the Rim into the lower deserts. Strong/severe wind gusts will be possible especially where clustering of outflow occurs. ..Wendt.. 08/04/2026 $$