ACUS01 KWNS 241943

SWODY1

SPC AC 241941



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0241 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025



Valid 242000Z - 251200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF

TEXAS...



...SUMMARY...

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of Texas

mainly this afternoon through this evening.  Large hail, severe

gusts, and a couple of tornadoes are possible.



...20z Update...

The primary forecast adjustment was a northward expansion of the 5%

tornado and 15% wind (Slight risk) probabilities into portions of

north-central TX. Recent surface observations across the DFW metro

show a pocket of higher theta-e air characterized by dewpoints in

the upper 60s and low 70s. This air mass should advect to the

northwest through the late afternoon/evening hours where it will

likely be impinged upon by an approaching convective line (which is

in the early stages of development across western TX per KMAF

imagery). Forecast soundings from recent high-res guidance suggest

low-level SRH may increase to around 150 m2/s2 in tandem with a

modest uptick in the low-level jet ahead of the line. This

combination of localized high-quality moisture and increasing

low-level shear may support a corridor where a few embedded

circulations within the line may be more probable. This idea is also

supported by recent HRRR/RRFS runs, which depict a secondary UH

maximum across north Texas approximately during the 23-03 UTC

period. Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track with no

changes required. See the previous discussion below and MCD #2168

for additional details.



..Moore.. 10/24/2025



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1106 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025/



...Texas...



An upper trough and associated 500 mb jet streak will continue to

overspread western TX into the afternoon. Large-scale ascent

associated with the ejecting trough and 40+ kt effective shear

within a low-level warm advection regime is supporting strong

thunderstorms across far West TX this morning. This activity may

initially pose a risk for marginally severe hail within the modestly

unstable environment.



A cold front/wind shift draped across the Panhandle will only shift

modestly southeast through the period, while a stationary

boundary/moisture gradient remains oriented over western/central OK

into east TX. Low to mid 60s F dewpoints will be common between the

two surface boundaries and beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates.

While cloud cover will suppress heating to some degree across

western TX, convection is expected to slowly increase in

coverage/intensity by early to mid-afternoon. MLCAPE around

1500-2000 J/kg is expected amid supercell wind profiles. Veering

vertical wind profiles will result in enlarged and favorably curved

low-level hodograph, while increasing southwesterly flow aloft will

favor elongated hodographs above 2-3 km. In combination with

favorable lapse rates/midlevel thermodynamic profiles, any

cellular/supercellular convection will pose a risk for large hail,

with isolated 2+ inch hail possible. 



Some tornado risk will also accompany storms today and this evening

aided by supercell wind profiles. However, low-level lapse rates and

0-3 km MLCAPE will remain modest. Furthermore, the 850 mb low-level

jet is expected to weaken through the day and shift east/northeast.

While some strengthening of the low-level jet may occur during the

evening, it is not expected to be particularly strong. Nevertheless

a couple of tornadoes could occur with supercells across portions of

the Permian Basin toward central TX.



Convective evolution may become messy quickly given storm mergers

and a lack of strong surface cyclogenesis. With time, linear

convection is expected to develop and spread east across central TX

into the evening. One or more MCSs may develop andapproach the

coastal plain by Saturday morning. Linear convection will pose a

risk of strong to locally damaging gusts.



$$