ACUS01 KWNS 241608

SWODY1

SPC AC 241606



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1106 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025



Valid 241630Z - 251200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF

TEXAS...



...SUMMARY...

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of Texas

mainly this afternoon through this evening.  Large hail, severe

gusts, and a couple of tornadoes are possible.



...Texas...



An upper trough and associated 500 mb jet streak will continue to

overspread western TX into the afternoon. Large-scale ascent

associated with the ejecting trough and 40+ kt effective shear

within a low-level warm advection regime is supporting strong

thunderstorms across far West TX this morning. This activity may

initially pose a risk for marginally severe hail within the modestly

unstable environment.



A cold front/wind shift draped across the Panhandle will only shift

modestly southeast through the period, while a stationary

boundary/moisture gradient remains oriented over western/central OK

into east TX. Low to mid 60s F dewpoints will be common between the

two surface boundaries and beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates.

While cloud cover will suppress heating to some degree across

western TX, convection is expected to slowly increase in

coverage/intensity by early to mid-afternoon. MLCAPE around

1500-2000 J/kg is expected amid supercell wind profiles. Veering

vertical wind profiles will result in enlarged and favorably curved

low-level hodograph, while increasing southwesterly flow aloft will

favor elongated hodographs above 2-3 km. In combination with

favorable lapse rates/midlevel thermodynamic profiles, any

cellular/supercellular convection will pose a risk for large hail,

with isolated 2+ inch hail possible. 



Some tornado risk will also accompany storms today and this evening

aided by supercell wind profiles. However, low-level lapse rates and

0-3 km MLCAPE will remain modest. Furthermore, the 850 mb low-level

jet is expected to weaken through the day and shift east/northeast.

While some strengthening of the low-level jet may occur during the

evening, it is not expected to be particularly strong. Nevertheless

a couple of tornadoes could occur with supercells across portions of

the Permian Basin toward central TX.



Convective evolution may become messy quickly given storm mergers

and a lack of strong surface cyclogenesis. With time, linear

convection is expected to develop and spread east across central TX

into the evening. One or more MCSs may develop and approach the

coastal plain by Saturday morning. Linear convection will pose a

risk of strong to locally damaging gusts.



..Leitman/Karstens.. 10/24/2025



$$