ACUS01 KWNS 241220

SWODY1

SPC AC 241218



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0718 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025



Valid 241300Z - 251200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF

WEST...NORTHWEST...AND CENTRAL TEXAS...



...SUMMARY...

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of Texas

mainly this afternoon through this evening.  Large hail, severe

gusts, and a couple of tornadoes are possible.



...Texas...

Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low

near the San Juan Mountains in southwestern CO.  This upper feature

is forecast to slowly migrate southeastward to the TX South Plains

by daybreak Saturday.  A belt of moderately strong southwesterly

500-mb flow will extend through the base of the trough over

Chihuahua east-northeastward through west and central TX.  Morning

surface analysis places a frontal zone draped from the mouth of the

Sabine River (TX-LA border) northwestward through north TX and

northward through western OK.  An ill-defined cold front extends

from southwest KS southwestward bisecting NM.  The northwestern rim

of richer moisture (upper 50s to lower 60s degree F surface

dewpoints) arcs from southwestern TX through the TX South Plains and

into the eastern TX Panhandle.  



Isolated to widely scattered showers/thunderstorms ongoing this

morning are in association with a broad, low-level warm/moist

advection zone via a 40 kt 850-mb LLJ centered over northwest TX. 

The LLJ is progged to gradually weaken during the period and shift

slowly east while a low-level warm-air advection regime persists

through the period.  A somewhat nebulous boundary (best

characterized as a weak wind shift/northern moisture gradient) will

probably serve as a focus for strong/severe storm activity expected

to develop later today.  Some modest heating in wake of early

showers will lead to a destabilizing airmass by afternoon, despite

rather extensive mid- to high-level cloud cover.  A gradual

development of scattered to numerous storms will likely occur this

afternoon into the evening coincident with diurnal destabilization. 

Similar to prior forecast thinking, strengthening wind profiles

favor supercells, but storm mode will likely be complex with storm

mergers and one or more MCSs likely, but specific details in terms

of potential mesoscale corridors for severe remain unclear at this

time.  All hazards are possible with supercells, but wind will be

more common with linear activity.  Convection should easily advance

beyond the I-35 corridor, possibly approaching the coastal plain of

TX by early Saturday morning.



..Smith/Weinman.. 10/24/2025



$$