ACUS01 KWNS 240039

SWODY1

SPC AC 240038



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0738 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025



Valid 240100Z - 241200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF

THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...



...SUMMARY...

Widely scattered severe storms are possible across the southern

Great Plains tonight.



...01z Update...



Only minor changes are warranted to severe probabilities across the

southern Great Plains tonight. Otherwise, earlier thoughts regarding

the evolution of convection remain.



Southern stream short-wave trough is advancing across the Four

Corners region into the southern Rockies early this evening.

Water-vapor imagery depicts this feature well with the leading edge

of large-scale forcing now spreading into the southern High Plains

region. Well ahead of the short wave, remnants of a weak midlevel

vort are located just northwest of OKC, shifting east. Strong-severe

convection is evolving ahead of this feature along a corridor of

modest lapse rates/buoyancy. 00z sounding from OKC exhibited around

1700 J/kg MLCAPE with wind profiles favoring supercells.



Southwest-northeast surface boundary will likely serve as the focus

for severe storms tonight. This boundary should remain draped from

west TX into southern OK and low-level warm advection is expected to

aid ongoing activity, and new development through 12z. 00z sounding

from MAF was negligibly inhibited with very steep lapse rates and

modest instability. With LLJ expected to increase across west TX

into the Panhandle, a prolonged convective event is expected

along/north of the wind shift. Hail should be the primary concern,

through wind, and perhaps a tornado or two remain possible.



..Darrow.. 10/24/2025



$$