ACUS01 KWNS 211234

SWODY1

SPC AC 211233



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0733 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026



Valid 211300Z - 221200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF

THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND OVER THE TEXAS SOUTH

PLAINS...



...SUMMARY...

Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon from parts

of the Southeast into the southern and central Appalachians.  An

isolated risk for large hail and severe gusts is forecast over parts

of the Texas South Plains later today.



...Southeast/Southern and Central Appalachians...

Radar mosaic this morning shows a parade of three MCVs moving

eastward over the OH Valley into the central Appalachians primarily

to the immediate cool side of a cold front.  This front will aid in

focusing storm development today over the northern portion of the

Marginal Risk where slightly stronger flow fields are expected

(i.e., KY-WV-VA).  By afternoon, the front is forecast to be

positioned from northern Mississippi northeastward to western

Virginia.  Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place with

surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s F from the lower

Mississippi Valley northeastward into WV.  As moderate buoyancy

develops by early to mid afternoon, scattered to numerous single and

multicell thunderstorms are expected to form.  A few of the stronger

downdrafts will likely yield a threat for strong to locally severe

gusts (50 to 60 mph) and pockets of wind damage before weakening by

the early evening.



...TX South Plains...

A mid to upper-level ridge will gradually shift eastward over the

southern High Plains during the period as an upper trough over

eastern OK this morning continues eastward and becomes increasingly

displaced from west TX.  A frontal zone and residual outflow will

become draped over the TX South Plains during the afternoon.  Model

guidance indicates at least scattered storms developing within a

moist plume extending west-northwestward into the Caprock/South

Plains vicinity during peak heating.  A couple of stronger

thunderstorms may yield an isolated risk for large hail/severe gusts

before dissipating during the evening.



..Smith/Mead.. 09/21/2026



$$