ACUS01 KWNS 201617

SWODY1

SPC AC 201615



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1115 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026



Valid 201630Z - 211200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF

THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...



...SUMMARY...

Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of

the Upper Ohio Valley and central Appalachians, mainly late this

afternoon into the evening.



...Upper Ohio Valley into the Central Appalachians...

Midday water-vapor imagery indicates a mid-level shortwave trough

over Lower Michigan as a belt of strong west-northwesterly flow is

maintained across the north-central U.S. eastward to the

Mid-Atlantic and New England coastal vicinity.  This disturbance is

forecast to quickly move to the Delmarva/NJ by midnight.  



The northern extent of a moisture plume, and an airmass still

undergoing modification over the Gulf Basin, will protrude northeast

into the upper OH Valley by late afternoon.  Forecast guidance shows

surface dewpoints perhaps reaching near 50 deg F near the OH-WV-PA

border region towards 00z.  Cold 500-mb temperatures and diurnal

heating will act to partially compensate for modest moisture and

contribute to weak buoyancy.  Isolated to widely scattered

low-topped thunderstorms will probably develop along a

southeastward-moving cold front during the evening. Elongated

hodographs support updraft organization but the overall limited

moisture will act to constrain otherwise greater storm coverage. 

Marginally severe hail and perhaps a couple of damaging gusts are

the primary hazards with the stronger storms.



..Smith/Mosier.. 03/20/2026



$$