ACUS01 KWNS 191255

SWODY1

SPC AC 191253



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0753 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025



Valid 191300Z - 201200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE

SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND OZARKS TO OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHERN

ROCKIES...



...SUMMARY...

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds

will be possible across the south-central Great Plains and Ozarks to

the Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe

thunderstorms may also occur across parts of the northern Rockies

including western and northern Montana.



...South-central Plains and Ozarks to Ohio Valley...

Outside of a few areas of lingering early day convection/small-scale

outflows, a hot air mass and relatively high moisture content will

reside to the south of a synoptic front extending from the

south-central Plains to the Midwest/Ohio Valley. Moderate to strong

buoyancy with daytime heating, beneath a residual plume of

relatively steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, will exist

particularly across parts of the south-central Plains to Ozark

Plateau, including parts of Kansas/Oklahoma to Arkansas/southern

Missouri. As storms diurnally develop/increase, upscale-growing

thunderstorm development should occur during the mid to late

afternoon and early evening. While weak deep-layer winds and shear

are likely to limit the risk for organized severe convection,

thermodynamic profiles will be conducive for downbursts and

severe-caliber wind gusts with the stronger storms, particularly

this afternoon through around sunset.



...Northern Rockies including western/northern Montana...

The late-day arrival of weak height falls and approaching mid-level

perturbation should influence isolated thunderstorm development late

this afternoon, and more so into this evening, across parts of

northern Idaho in western and eventually northern Montana.

Sufficient moisture/buoyancy near and behind a surface front, along

with strengthening flow aloft, will support the possibility of some

severe storms, and potentially some clustering/organization to the

storms as they progress across western/northern Montana.

West-southwesterly mean flow strengthening to 30-40+ kt in the

cloud-bearing layer, and a residual deep sub-cloud mixed-layer, will

likely be sufficient for downward mixing of momentum to contribute

to a few strong to severe wind gusts.



..Guyer/Dean.. 08/19/2025



$$