ACUS01 KWNS 190051

SWODY1

SPC AC 190049



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0749 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025



Valid 190100Z - 191200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING

ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN KANSAS AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...AND PARTS OF

SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...



...SUMMARY...

A clustering of storms may continue to generate strong to severe

wind gusts across parts of the central Great Plains through much of

the evening.



...01Z Update...



...Central Great Plains...

A low-level convergence zone has become a focus for thunderstorm

development near/north of the I-70 corridor of western Kansas, with

additional thunderstorm activity approaching the eastern Colorado

state border vicinity, aided by a weak short wave impulse

progressing around the northeastern periphery of a prominent

mid-level high centered east of the Four Corners.  This activity,

and associated convective outflow, may continue to gradually

consolidate into a further enlarging convective cluster, which could

eventually generate a notable mesoscale convective vortex while

propagating slowly eastward within otherwise light westerly

deep-layer mean flow across the central Great Plains.



A deeply mixed boundary-layer across the high plains has contributed

to an environment conducive to downbursts and surface cold pool

development.  As the cold pools consolidate and spread into a much

more moist boundary layer with large potential instability across

south central Nebraska/central Kansas, it is possible that forcing

for ascent may overcome increasing inhibition associated with

boundary layer cooling, and maintain vigorous convective development

into and through the overnight hours.



...Dakotas...

Widely scattered strong boundary-layer based thunderstorm

development is generally expected to wane over the next few hours,

as mid-level inhibition increases with the loss of daytime heating.



..Kerr.. 08/19/2025



$$