ACUS01 KWNS 071626

SWODY1

SPC AC 071625



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1125 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025



Valid 071630Z - 081200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL

SOUTHEAST...



...SUMMARY...

Scattered severe storms are expected this afternoon across parts of

northern Florida and southern/eastern Georgia to the Carolinas.



...Northern Florida and southern/eastern Georgia to Carolinas...

The region will be influenced by an upstream positive-tilt trough

with strong deep-layer flow extending into the warm sector across

the Southeast, where a moderately moist airmass resides beneath

relatively poor lapse rates aloft. Preceding a

northeastward-transitioning sub-synoptic low, a

northeast/southwest-oriented broken line/cluster of storms exists

across east-central Georgia to south-central/southwest Georgia and

the eastern Florida Panhandle as of midday. Multiple radar TDSs have

recently (mid/late morning) been observed in southwest Georgia and

the eastern Florida Panhandle within Tornado Watch 133.



A moist air mass exists ahead of these storms with near 70F

dewpoints across northern Florida into Georgia, and 60s F dewpoints

into the Carolinas coincident with ample heating/insolation

especially for coastal areas. Some additional strengthening of

already strong (45+ kt) southwesterly winds in the 1-3km AGL layer,

oriented largely parallel to the ongoing convective line, will

continue to support embedded supercells and bows capable of

tornadoes and damaging winds through the afternoon, with the overall

potential expected to diminish by around sunset.



Deeper convection is also expected to expand north/northeastward

along the front as it moves into the Carolina Piedmont. A linear

convective mode is expected with damaging gusts as the primary

severe risk. The strength of the low-level flow suggests some

tornado potential will also exist.



..Guyer/Lyons.. 04/07/2025



$$