ACUS01 KWNS 071232

SWODY1

SPC AC 071230



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0730 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025



Valid 071300Z - 081200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF

NORTH FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...AND THE CAROLINAS...



...SUMMARY...

Scattered storms, some severe, are possible today across parts of

northern Florida, southeast Georgia, and the Carolinas.



...Synopsis...

Positively titled upper troughing currently extends from Ontario

through central Mexico, with a shortwave trough embedded within this

larger trough from the Ozark Plateau through central Mexico. Strong

mid-level flow exists throughout the eastern periphery of the parent

troughing, with a jet max of 90+ kt at 500 mb extending from the

Mid-South into New England. 



Current surface pattern features a low near the northern TN/NC

border intersection, with another weaker low farther south near the

ATL vicinity. A modest cold front extends between these two lows,

becoming a bit more defined south of the second low due to outflow

augmentation from the ongoing storms. A warm front also extend

eastward from the northern low across southern VA. 



The southern shortwave trough is forecast to progress eastward

throughout the day, moving across the Lower MS Valley and Southeast

states before losing amplitude amid the more confluent flow across

the Carolinas. The primary surface low is expected to move

east-northeastward, with the cold front making steady eastward

progress. 



...North Florida/Southeast Georgia/Carolinas...

Airmass downstream of the ongoing convective line is currently

characterized by mostly mid 60s dewpoints, although some low 70s

exists across far southwest GA and the central FL Panhandle. This

low-level moisture is supporting modest buoyancy, despite poor lapse

rates. Some strengthening of the storms within the line has been

noted over the past hour as it interacts with a narrow corridor of

70s dewpoints across far southwest GA and the central FL Panhandle.

Bowing segments and embedded rotation has been observed briefly as

updraft intensity modulates. Given that these higher dewpoints exist

in a relatively narrow corridor, the threat for damaging gusts

and/or brief tornadoes is expected to remain short-lived this

morning.



Modest buoyancy is expected downstream of the cold front throughout

the day, with daytime heating helping to maintain this buoyancy

farther eastward into southeast GA and southern SC where lower

dewpoints are anticipated. In addition to this buoyancy, large-scale

forcing for ascent is expected to strengthen as well, both from the

approaching shortwave trough and favorable proximity within the

right entrance region of the strengthening mid-level flow. Moderate

to strong low-level southwesterly flow will persist throughout the

day.



All of these factors suggest the ongoing convective line should be

maintained as it moves eastward throughout the day, with some

additional strengthening and organization possible, particularly if

daytime heating does not overly mix the boundary layer. Deeper

convection is expected to expand northward along the front moves

into the Carolina Piedmont. A linear mode will likely be maintained,

with damaging gusts as the primary severe risk. The strength of the

low-level flow suggest some tornado potential exists as well.



..Mosier/Kerr.. 04/07/2025



$$