ACUS01 KWNS 070545

SWODY1

SPC AC 070543



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1243 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025



Valid 071200Z - 081200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTH

FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...



...SUMMARY...

Scattered storms, some severe, are possible Monday afternoon across

parts of northern Florida and the southern Atlantic Seaboard.



...Synopsis...

A large upper-level trough will continue eastward from the

Mississippi Valley into the East Coast by Tuesday morning. Some

intensification of the mid-level jet is expected as it moves from

the lower Mississippi Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface,

a weak surface low in the southern Appalachians will deepen as the

jet intensifies. This feature will move through western North

Carolina and along the North Carolina/Virginia border during the

morning/early afternoon. An east-west warm front will accompany the

surface low with a cold front extending southwestward into

Georgia/North Florida. The cold front will be nearly offshore by

late afternoon.



...North Florida/Southeast Georgia/South Carolina...

Convection is likely to be ongoing Monday morning in parts of the

Southeast and the Florida Panhandle. This activity along the front

will progress eastward along with the upper trough. The low-level

jet is expected to shift northeastward with time. It is possible

that most favorable low-level shear/tornado environment will exist

when convection is diurnally weak. That being said, 850 mb winds

will still remain moderately strong even into the afternoon. Heating

ahead of the convection (promoting around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) may

help to reinvigorate it. Effective shear, parallel to the cold

front, will be 40-45 kts. Organized storms will likely be mostly

linear in character with perhaps embedded supercells. Damaging winds

and perhaps a tornado or two would be possible. Poor mid-level lapse

rates should mitigate large hail potential, particularly with the

expected linear storm modes.



...North Carolina into far southeast Virginia...

Along with similarly poor mid-level lapse rates as farther south,

stronger warm air advection into warm frontal zone suggests greater

potential for early day precipitation and cloud cover. Even so, the

track of the surface low may allow rich moisture to remain in

northern North Carolina into far southern Virginia. While limited

destabilization will most likely keep the threat for isolated wind

damage and a brief tornado marginal, the low-level jet will be

stronger with northward extent and helicity will be enhanced near

the warm front. If greater heating can occur, there a small corridor

of higher tornado potential could exist.



..Wendt/Squitieri.. 04/07/2025



$$