ACUS01 KWNS 070051

SWODY1

SPC AC 070050



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0750 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025



Valid 070100Z - 071200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...



...SUMMARY...

Scattered convection may persist in portions of southern Alabama and

the Florida Panhandle. Isolated wind damage and perhaps a tornado or

two remain possible this evening into Monday morning.



...Synopsis...

A large-scale trough within the Plains will continue eastward

progress through tonight. Mid-level winds may gradually increase

across portions of the Southeast. Convection along the surface cold

front will likely persist into Monday morning given continued

forcing for ascent and a very moist low-level airmass.



...Southern Alabama and Florida Panhandle Vicinity...

Convection continues this evening across the region. Lightning

trends further inland from the Gulf have generally trended down over

the last few hours. Upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints remain south of

convective outflow in southern Alabama into the Florida Panhandle

and adjacent southwest Georgia. Given the moist airmass in place and

continued theta-e advection into the region, MLCIN should remain

minimal through tonight. 850 mb winds are expected to maintain their

intensity ahead of the convection and area VADs continue to show

some low-level hodograph enlargement. Storm intensity through the

overnight is not certain given the storm mode, gradual

boundary-layer cooling, and weak lapse rates (observed in the BMX

sounding this evening). However, given the forcing, strong

deep-layer shear, and adequate low-level shear, the environment will

remain conditionally favorable for a tornado or two into Monday

morning. The 5% tornado probabilities (Slight risk) will be

maintained for this reason. The strongest convection may also

produce isolated wind damage.



..Wendt.. 04/07/2025



$$