ACUS01 KWNS 060551

SWODY1

SPC AC 060549



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1249 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026



Valid 061200Z - 071200Z



...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS

OF NORTHERN LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND CENTRAL

ALABAMA...



...SUMMARY...

Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and

evening from eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee

Valleys/southern Appalachians. Supercells capable of all hazards

will be possible across portions of central Mississippi and Alabama

before a shift to a more widespread damaging wind risk into the late

evening/overnight.



...Synopsis...

A strong mid to upper-level jet will move across the mid Mississippi

Valley into Tennessee and northward into the Ohio Valley through the

period. At the surface, a cold front will sag southward from the

southern Plains into the Gulf Coast states and north into the

Mid-Atlantic region. Thunderstorm activity is expected to be ongoing

along this boundary at the start of the period this morning across

portions of Arkansas, northern Mississippi, and Tennessee. By the

afternoon, additional development of severe storms is likely across

portions of Louisiana into central Mississippi and central Alabama

along and ahead of the cold front. Supercells capable of all hazards

will be possible before trending to a damaging wind threat as storms

grow upscale through the evening.



...Northern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama...

Extensive mid-level cloud cover is expected to persist this morning

across much of the Mississippi River Valley into portions of

northern Louisiana/Alabama/Mississippi. Within the gradient of

broken mid-level cloud cover across portions of south-central and

southern Mississippi into central Alabama, filtered heating and

strong warm air advection may promote a more favorable corridor of

moderate MLCAPE values. Almost all hi-res guidance hints at the

possibility of storms developing within the open warm sector by the

afternoon, the primary mode being supercelluar. Within this

corridor, a southwesterly low-level jet around 40-50 kts will also

increase into the evening enlarging low-level hodographs and

increasing potential for tornadoes. Should supercells be able to

form and sustain within this environment, they would pose a risk for

all hazards including strong tornadoes, large hail, and damaging

winds. The Enhanced Risk was shifted southward to nudge into the

region where there is better confidence that filtered heating will

occur. Higher probabilities were considered, but details on morning

cloud cover and air mass recovery into the afternoon lead to low

confidence in introducing higher probabilities.



As the front sags southward, storms will begin to cluster with

tendency to grow upscale and an increasing damaging wind threat

continuing downstream into portions of southern Alabama and

central/southern Georgia.



...Texas...

Thunderstorm development is possible further south along the front

and dryline into portions of eastern, central, and southwestern

Texas. Isolated supercells will be possible with potential for a few

instances of severe hail and damaging wind. Overall, coverage is

expected to remain more limited given better forcing for ascent will

be located to the east.



..Thornton/Lyons.. 05/06/2026



$$