ACUS01 KWNS 060057

SWODY1

SPC AC 060056



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0756 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025



Valid 060100Z - 061200Z



...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST

MISSISSIPPI INTO FAR NORTHWEST ALABAMA AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN

TENNESSEE...



...SUMMARY...

A broken line of storms with embedded bowing segments and supercells

will continue east this evening/overnight through the parts of the

Southeast into parts of the southern/central Appalachians. Strong

tornadoes will remain possible in the Southeast and parts of the

Mid-South. Large hail and damaging winds are also possible.



...Synopsis...

An upper-level trough in the Southwest will make eastward progress

this evening into Sunday morning. A mid-level jet streak will pivot

into Ozarks/Mid-South. Convection will continue to be focused along

a surface boundary from near the Sabine Valley into Middle Tennessee

and parts of the central Appalachians/upper Ohio Valley vicinity.



...Northeast Mississippi/Northwest Alabama and adjacent far southern

Tennessee...

The strongest ongoing storms are in northeast Mississippi where

tornadoes have been observed. Rich moisture and locally backed

surface winds are evident ahead of this activity. The 15% tornado

probabilities have been adjusted for these storms. Given convective

outflow in western/Middle Tennessee, it appears probable that some

decrease in storm organization will eventually occur as storms

interact with this outflow in Tennessee.



...Louisiana/Mississippi/Alabama...

Convection should eventually make more progress eastward this

evening into Sunday morning as the trough pushes eastward. Observed

soundings from LCH/LIX/JAN showed large MLCAPE, but mid-level lapse

became more modest with eastward extent. Forcing from the

trough/surface front should allow scattered storms to continue

eastward. Strong shear and moderate buoyancy ahead of the front

should promote a risk for damaging winds, particularly with any

bowing segments that can develop. Large hail may occur with the

strongest discrete elements. Given the eastward shift and some

intensification of 850 mb winds into Mississippi over the next few

hours, low-level shear will remain strong and support a threat for

tornadoes (some of which could be strong).



...Portions of southern/central Appalachians Vicinity...

Diminishing buoyancy with northward and eastward extent should

generally limit the severe threat in these areas. However, strong

flow and continued push of the ongoing convective line could promote

a marginal risk for isolated wind damage.



..Wendt.. 04/06/2025



$$