ACUS01 KWNS 050054

SWODY1

SPC AC 050052



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0752 PM CDT Mon May 04 2026



Valid 050100Z - 051200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN

KANSAS INTO NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO...



...SUMMARY...

Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and

damaging wind gusts are possible from eastern Kansas into the

portions of the Ohio Valley this evening into tonight.  A

conditional threat for severe storms with large to very large hail

extends into portions of southern Plains through the remainder of

the evening.



...Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys....



Widely scattered, strong to severe storms are ongoing this evening

along and ahead of a progressive cold front from southern lower MI

into northern IL and far southeast IA with visible satellite

indicating additional storm attempts into portions of northern MO. A

separate area of thunderstorms is ongoing within the open warm

sector east of St. Louis where hail up two inches in diameter has

been reported. In the absence of more substantial boundary-layer

moisture content, 00z observed soundings revealed the presence of

steep low/mid-level lapse rates are largely contributing to MLCAPE

of around 1000 J/kg. Meanwhile, the accompanying kinematic

environment features a vertically veering wind profile with around

40 kt of effective bulk shear magnitudes and modestly strong

low-level shear (effective SRH of 150-200 m2/s2). 



Current thinking is that ongoing storms will remain capable of

isolated occurrences of large hail and locally damaging wind gusts

for the next few hours as increasing moisture content along a

nocturnal low-level jet offsets cooling in the boundary layer. The

threat should tend to diminish overnight as the boundary layer

gradually stabilizes. 



For additional information on near-term details, see MCDs 640 and

641.





...Eastern Kansas into western Missouri...



Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms have persisted this

evening across portions of western into central KS, aided by a weak

mid-level impulse moving through the central High Plains. A number

of high-resolution models suggest that activity will intensify later

this evening into tonight as it drifts east of the I-35 corridor and

encounters an increasingly unstable air mass in place across eastern

KS into western MO. A strengthening low-level jet will enhance

moisture transport into the growing complex of storms with large

hail being the primary hazard initially. With time, the models

suggest upscale growth into one or more forward-propagating clusters

with an increased risk for damaging wind gusts.



..Mead.. 05/05/2026



$$