ACUS01 KWNS 031616

SWODY1

SPC AC 031615



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1015 AM CST Tue Feb 03 2026



Valid 031630Z - 041200Z



...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...



...SUMMARY...

Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the

contiguous United States.



...Synopsis...

Upper pattern is expected to amplify today, largely a consequence of

a deepening central/eastern CONUS upper trough. This large-scale

deepening will be fostered by the progression and evolution of

several shortwave troughs as they move through the western and

southern periphery of the parent upper troughing. The first of these

waves is currently moving southeastward through the Lower MO Valley,

with continued east-southeastward/eastward motion expected to take

this wave across the Mid-South, TN Valley, and central Appalachians

today.



A modest warm sector precedes this lead wave, with some low-level

moisture return currently noted across the TX Coastal Plains into

central and east TX. Some moisture return today will continue as the

shortwave progresses eastward and an associated cold front pushes

southeastward across TX and the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley.  However,

much of the central Gulf basin remains fairly dry due to previous

frontal intrusions, likely limiting the overall moisture return from

the Lower MS Valley eastward across the remainder of the Southeast.

This will confine the better low-level moisture return to the TX

Gulf Coast and southwest LA. Warm-air advection across this modestly

moist portion of the warm sector could contribute to some buoyancy.

However, tempered heating and poor lapse rates will mitigate the

overall magnitude of any buoyancy that does develop. Even so,

occasional updrafts should still be deep enough for isolated

lightning, particularly from east TX into central LA where the

highest thunderstorm coverage is anticipated. Modest vertical shear

will be in place, but the overall severe risk will be limited by

weak buoyancy.



..Mosier/Thornton.. 02/03/2026



$$