ABPW10 PGTW 200600

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH

PACIFIC OCEANS/200600Z-210600ZAUG2025//

REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200151ZAUG2025//

AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//

RMKS/

1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):

   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:

      (1) AT 20AUG25 0000Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN) WAS

LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 127.4E, APPROXIMATELY 251 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF

SASEBO, JAPAN, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST

SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS

GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN32 PGTW 200300) FOR FURTHER

DETAILS.

      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:

      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR

11.2N 137.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 132.2E, APPROXIMATELY 672 NM

NORTH OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY

(MSI) AND A 200417Z AMSR2 37GHZ PASS DEPICT A BROAD, HIGHLY

DISORGANIZED TROPICAL WAVE LIKE FEATURE WITH PERSISTENT, FLARING

CONVECTION AND MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING. A 200114Z ASCAT-C 25KM PASS

DEPICTS A TROPICAL WAVE WITH 05-15 KNOT WINDS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS

REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND

SHEAR (VWS) OF 5-10 KNOTS, MODERATE DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW, WARM SEA

SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF (SST) OF 29-30 C. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES

ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT ON INTENSITY BUT SHOW CONFIDENCE ON A

NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARDS LUZON, PHILIPPINES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL

PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE

DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS

REMAINS LOW.

      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.

   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.

2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):

   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.

   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//

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