ABPW10 PGTW 190600

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH

PACIFIC OCEANS/190600Z-200600ZAUG2025//

REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/181951ZAUG2025//

REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/181421ZAUG2025//

NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE

FORMATION ALERT.//

RMKS/

1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):

   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:

      (1) AT 18AUG25 1800Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN) WAS

LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 107.3E, APPROXIMATELY 79 NM EAST OF HANOI,

VIETNAM, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX

HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS

GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPN31 PGTW 182100) FOR THE FINAL

WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.

      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:

      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR

26.1N 128.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 127.9E, APPROXIMATELY 371 NM

SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE

IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER

(LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE, PERSISTENT BANDING CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE

EAST TO THE LLCC. A PARTIAL 190131Z ASCAT-C PASS REVEALS A SYMMETRIC

WIND FIELD OF 25-30 KNOTS ALONG THE EAST-SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF

THE SEMI-CIRCLE. A 190500Z OBSERVATION FROM OKINAWA, JAPAN SHOWS

SOUTHERLY SUSTAINED WINDS OF 16 KNOTS AND A MSLP OF 1009 MB.

ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT

WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 15-20 KNOTS, GOOD

POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST)

OF 29-30 C. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES MODELS ARE IN MARGINALLY

AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE CONSENSUS AROUND 20-25 KNOTS WITH A TRACK

TOWARD WESTERN KYUSHU, JAPAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE

ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED

TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A

SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.

SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 181430) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR

11.1N 138.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 137.3E, APPROXIMATELY 113 NM

NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY

(MSI) DEPICTS A WAVE LIKE FEATURE WITH FLARING CONVECTION AND MID-

LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL

ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 5-

15 KNOTS, WEAK UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES

OF (SST) OF 30-31 C. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN POOR

AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPMENT BUT SHOW CONFIDENCE ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK

TOWARD LUZON, PHILIPPINES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE

ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED

TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A

SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.

   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.

2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):

   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.

   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//

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