ABPW10 PGTW 190300

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH

PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/190300Z-190600ZAUG2025//

REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/181951ZAUG2025//

REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/181421ZAUG2025//

AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL

CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//

RMKS/

1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):

   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:

      (1) AT 18AUG25 1800Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN) WAS

LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 107.3E, APPROXIMATELY 79 NM EAST OF HANOI,

VIETNAM, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX

HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS

GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 182100) FOR THE FINAL

WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.

      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:

      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR

23.0N 127.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 128.1E, APPROXIMATELY 24 NM

NORTHWEST OF KADENA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)

DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) BEING

IMPACTED BY A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL WITH

CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A

MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE VWS (VERTICAL WIND

SHEAR), POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (30-

31C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92W WILL TRACK

STEADILY NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE

WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS

ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A

SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.

      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR

10.9N 141.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 138.5E, APPROXIMATELY 97 NM

NORTH-NORTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY

(MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TURNING IN CONJUNCTION WITH

FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE PRESENT MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION.

ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINAL TO FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR

DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VWS (VERTICAL WIND SHEAR), GOOD

EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (30-31C).

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90W WILL TRACK NORTH-

NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS

ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS

ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A

SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED

TO LOW.

      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.

   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.

2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):

   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.

   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.

3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: DOWNGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(2) TO

LOW.//

NNNN