ABPW10 PGTW 050100

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH

PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/050100Z-050600ZMAY2026//

RMKS/

1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):

   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:

      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR

7.5N 151.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.6N 150.0E, APPROXIMATELY 112 NM WEST

OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A

PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING

CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CENTER AND INCREASING FORMATIVE BANDING IN

THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE

ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PROVIDED BY AN

ANTICYCLONE ALOFT, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), AND WARM SEA

SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS

ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93W WILL TRACK WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36

HOURS AS IT GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATES, HOWEVER, THE DEVELOPMENT TIMELINE

DIFFERS SLIGHTLY BETWEEN ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS.  ENSEMBLE

MODELS ARE IN FAVOR OF A MORE RAPID AND INTENSE CONSOLIDATION WHEREAS

DETERMINISTIC MODELS INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY AS IT APPROACHES THE

PHILIPPINE SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO

18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE

WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.

   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.

2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):

   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.

   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.

3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED LOW AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO

MEDIUM//

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