ABPW10 PGTW 040200

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH

PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/040200Z-040600ZMAY2026//

RMKS/

1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):

   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:

      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.5N

151.7E, APPROXIMATELY 14 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL

SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL

CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DISORGANIZED CONVECTION BEGINNING TO

CONGEAL INTO FORMATIVE BANDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 032316Z

PARTIAL ASCAT PASS REVEALS A WEAK, CLOSED LLCC CENTERED IN THE VICINITY

OF CHUUK, WITH MODERATE WESTERLIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK AND

MODERATE NORTHEASTERLIES TO THE NORTH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS

A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW

PROVIDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY, LOW

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-

30 C). BOTH GEFS AND ECENS DEPICT 93W TRACKING WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT

24-48 AS IT SLOWLY CONSOLIDATES. THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE LAGGING

BEHIND, INDICATING A SLOWER PACE OF CONSOLIDATION AND PRIMARILY

SUPPORTING A LATER WINDOW FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE ECMWF IS THE SOLE

DETERMINISTIC MODEL DEPICTING 93W REACHING TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH

WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE

ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO

BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT

TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.

   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.

2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):

   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.

   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.

3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1).//

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