ABPW10 PGTW 031400

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH

PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/031400Z-040600ZFEB2026//

REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/031351ZFEB2026//

AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//

RMKS/

1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):

   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:

      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR

10.0N 140.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.1N 135.0E, APPROXIMATELY 111 NM

NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR)

DEPICTS A BROAD AND ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING,

FRAGMENTED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE CIRCULATION BUT FOCUSED

IN THE NORTHERN EXTENT. A PARTIAL 031203Z ASCAT PASS CONFIRMS THE HIGHLY

ASYMMETRIC NATURE OF THE LLCC, WITH LIGHT WINDS EXTENDING ALL ALONG THE

EASTERN FLANK, AND STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS (25KTS TO 35KTS) ALONG THE

NORTHWESTERN FLANK. THE LLCC IS POSITIONED IN THE FAR NORTHERN END OF A

THE HIGHLY ELONGATED, BEAN-SHAPED LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS

FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND

SHEAR (15 TO 20KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 C), AND

GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS INDICATE QUICK

DEVELOPMENT OF 94W WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND ALSO AGREE IN A GENERAL

WESTWARD TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PHILIPPINES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL

PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE

DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS

IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 031400) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.

   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.

2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):

   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.

   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.

3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1) TO

HIGH.//

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