ABPW10 PGTW 030600

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH

PACIFIC OCEANS/030600Z-040600ZFEB2026//

RMKS/

1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):

   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:

      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR

10.0N 140.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.7N 136.5E, APPROXIMATELY 149 NM

NORTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)

DEPICTS A BROAD AND ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING

CONVECTION THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 032340Z ASCAT PASS

REVEALED A BEAN-SHAPED LLC, WITH A POSSIBLE CIRCULATION CENTER PINCHING

OFF IN THE NORTHEASTERN EXTENT OF THE LARGER ROTATION. WINDS ARE LIGHT

ON THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST FLANKS OF THE CIRCULATION, WHILE WINDS EXCEED

25-30 KNOTS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN FLANK, EMBEDDED WITHIN A BELT OF

STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SURGE FLOW. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM PALAU

INDICATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INDICATIVE OF A CIRCULATION CENTER

POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STATION, THOUGH WINDS ARE GENERALLY

LIGHT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR

DEVELOPMENT WITH THE SYSTEM COCOONED WITHIN A SMALL POCKET OF LOW

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO

30 C), AND GOOD POLEWARD AND WESTWARD OUTFLOW. ALL GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP

94W OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, AGREEING WITH THE ENSEMBLE MODELS AS

WELL. MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEANCE THAT 94W WILL GENERALLY TAKE A WESTWARD

TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PHILIPPINES.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM

SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR

THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24

HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.

   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.

2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):

   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.

   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//

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