ABPW10 PGTW 021030

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH

PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/021030Z-030600ZFEB2026//

RMKS/

1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):

   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:

      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.0N

140.2E, APPROXIMATELY 128 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED ENHANCED

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A WEAKLY DEFINED AND BROAD LOW

LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH INTERMITTENT FLARING CONVECTION

THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA

INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND

SHEAR (10-15 KTS), GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE

TEMPERATURES (29-30 C). DETERMINISTIC NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS

CHARACTERIZE THE LLCC AS MAINTAINING A RELATIVELY BROAD SURFACE

CIRCULATION THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS, WHILE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE

MODELS ILLUSTRATE SURFACE INTENSITIES BETWEEN 20-25 KTS IN THE NEAR

FUTURE. GENERALLY, GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE

IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 94W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD AND GRADUALLY

INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE

ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO

BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT

TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.

   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.

2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):

   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.

   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.

3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1).//

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